Data scientist Thomas Miller has created a model to predict the 2024 presidential election that, he says, is more reliable than the polls that are constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the results on November 5. Instead, Northwestern University professors published a framework based on betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to answer, but the one they expect to win. This writer began to follow Miller’s predictions during the 2020 White House contest, and the two Georgia Senate races that followed in early January 2021. Miller called the former in 12 electoral votes, and correctly stated that the Democrats will sweep both Senate seats during the polls. show real Republicans ahead. His call for a margin of victory proved correct.
Given Miller’s excellent record in the 2020 cycle, it is very instructive to examine his outlook for this year’s race. And as in the case of the Georgia runoffs, the view shocked the contrarian: While most experts and forecasters saw a “dead heat” or a “throwaway,” Miller’s numbers showed the Harris-Walz ticket far ahead with a wide Democratic advantage. settled into a remarkably stable pattern.
Miller’s formula translates betting odds into electoral votes
Miller’s model centers on the “price” posted on America’s most active political betting site, PredictIT. This is a very liquid market that trades, on average, 37,000 shares per day. The principle of his decision: The odds for two candidates, after eliminating bets on 3rd party contenders, closely reflect their share of the popular vote. If the candidate’s price on PredictIT is 54 cents, that 54 cents can be used to estimate the vote share, which will be lower, but still their odds. Miller also concluded from evaluating the results of all presidential elections since 1960 that the popular vote share reliably predicted the percentage of the electoral tally each candidate would receive. “The core of this model is 60 years of presidential election history,” Miller admitted. He emphasized his respect for the work of Allan Lichtman of American University, who also based his widely followed predictions on the history of presidential elections.
“Polling relies on a much smaller sample than PredictIT,” Miller said. “They usually only survey 500 to 1,500. There is no consistency in the people polled. The pollsters all use different groups of possible voters. They’re also using different methods so there is no single way of analyzing their data. On the contrary, tens of thousands voted and the dollar on PredictIT. If they are right, they convert 57 cents to the dollar. Participants are encouraged to stay in the market to get results, so the investor group sets the price.
That PredictIT is open 24-7 is another plus. “So, at any time you can sell your shares,” Miller said. “If things are not good for the Democrats, you sell the Democratic shares and buy the Republican shares. Investors always ask, ‘I have to take what will happen on November 5, and I’m going to make money. Tens of thousands of participants expressed their opinion for the outcome with their bets.'” The bettors gather to form a political market that resembles an exchange where investors use their best information to predict future prices for stocks, bonds or commodities.
From now until Election Day, Miller posts his projected electoral vote (EV) totals for the two candidates in real time; he updated the numbers shortly after the price of PredictIT changed, on his website The Virtual Tout. At 11 AM on October 2, Miller has Harris-Walz lead Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a big bulge of 66 electoral votes. The ill tidings for Republicans: The Harris ticket has been well ahead ever since the Harris-Trump debate three weeks ago, and bettors are showing a low tendency to change their minds.
The VP debate only moves the market
By Miller’s metric, the vice president on Oct. 1 did relatively little to change the trajectory of a race that appeared to have reached a steady state. “During the entire 90-minute debate, there was no change in the forecast. But at midnight in October, little changed on the Republican ticket, showing that Vance’s performance was better than Walz’s,” said Miller. fortune. “In this case, only six votes were moved from Democrats to Republicans, so it’s a minor change showing a slim edge to Vance.”
Miller recently made key adjustments to his model. “I found that the model does not work well when the odds are high in favor of one candidate,” he said. “That’s because when people think a candidate is very likely to win, they bet only on that candidate, skewing the price too far in their favor. In the far margin, the initial model distorted the estimate of vote share. It has been corrected since September 22.
Miller found that the turning point of the campaign was Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31, when he suggested that Harris was misleading voters about his race. Before the gaffe, Trump was running by about 290 electoral votes, 20 more than he needed to win. The day after the NABJ event, Harris bolted into the lead, and he has remained in the lead ever since. Trump was briefly withdrawn almost even just before their debate on September 10. The previous day, Trump got a lift, thanks to the decision of the judge of New York State on the delay of sentencing in the GOP standard-bearer’s case of hush money until after the election. “On September 10, Trump stood at 261, just 9 short of a win, and Harris had 277,” says Miller. “By the end of the year, Harris had added 35 to reach 312.” Miller also credits Taylor Swift’s endorsement, delivered moments after the candidate left the stage, for giving Harris an extra boost.
Harris’ electoral tally increased over the next two weeks, reaching a high point of 337 electoral votes by September 20.
Since Harris reached his post-debate peak, his margin has dropped back down. Is this the start of a rise for Donald Trump?
Since Harris reached that peak, his electoral count has fallen from almost 340 to now 302, and Trump’s rebounded from only 201 to 236. But for Miller, the shift does not indicate that Trump’s staging a comeback. He said that for the past week leading up to the VP debate, Harris’ position has been consistent at more than 300 electoral votes. Most importantly, he says, bettors’ views on who will win seem to be locked in place. And for Trump to regain the White House, a large share of wagerers must move to his camp.
“I don’t consider the Harris drop as significant,” Miller said. “Investors in the prediction market sometimes change their minds, but not many do.” He pointed to the low volume on PredictIT. “The last time we saw a spike was in the moment of Swift’s debate and support,” he added. “There was a little uptick for Trump after the VP debate, but the last significant event to move the odds was the presidential debate. Now, most people do not change their bets, they keep their contracts in place.
The poll numbers show that Harris is, for now, on track to sweep the swing states.
Based on basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds the key in most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He added that Harris also had Georgia in his column when he reached 337 EVs in Apex climbing his post-debate on September 20. He said Trump’s modest bump has put the Peach State back in play, and that Trump is also standing. good opportunity in North Sulawesi Province. But for now, the countries that have become the most important since the race began remain out of his reach.
The world has become more dangerous in recent days as a strike by dock workers threatens to raise wholesale prices and the middle-class teeters on the brink of widespread war. Major events could still change the course of this election. But for now, Harris is under command, Miller said. Betting sites get it, and predictably, polls lag far behind the curve. According to bettors, Trump blew a nice lead by stumbling before NABJ and botched a budding comeback by floundering in the debate. He may need a DAS moment or a Harris screwup to turn the race around. It can happen. But bettors doubt it will happen, and as Miller’s shown, bettors are the best in cutting through the fog of polls and pundits, and get the right election.
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