Donald Trump visits Democratic states to fight for the US House

Less than 50 days before the US election, with House seats and the future of his presidential agenda hanging in the balance, Republican Donald Trump is holding a rally in a state he looks set to lose.

“When I told some people in Washington, yes, I’m going to New York, we’re doing a campaign speech, they said, ‘What do you mean New York?’ Nobody can win. Republicans can’t win,'” Trump regaled the crowd at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Long Island earlier this month.

This rally is just a short train ride from the liberal bastion of New York City, but the atmosphere is indistinguishable from its rallies in more conservative countries. the arena parking lot was a Trumpian tailgate party; Vendors sold merchandise with the slogan “I vote for criminals,” and a Trump impersonator posed for photos.

“I said, I can win New York, and we can win New York,” Trump said.

Maureen Liantonio, a 55-year-old from Long Island, showed up to support him. Instead of wearing the usual red-white-blue to the rally, he wore a bright shirt featuring Trump wearing Barbie-pink shades and blowing bubble gum.

“I did it all Republican,” he said. “All ballots down, Republicans.”

Trump may not have taken New York in the Electoral College, but that night in Uniondale before thousands, he was right — Republicans can win.

In New York, Republicans and Democrats are at war in several congressional districts on Long Island, and in the Hudson Valley and central regions as they battle for control of the House of Representatives — in addition to the White House. Part of Trump’s mission in Democratic states like New York, which he is unlikely to win, is to fight for Republican candidates to win those districts.

A handful of moderate districts in partisan states could tip the balance of power in the House. Republicans, now the majority of the House, challenge Democratic representatives in blue-leaning areas in the states of Washington and Maine. Meanwhile, Democrats are struggling to keep their centrist lawmakers in more conservative states like Alaska and Ohio.

Winning the House seat in the up-for grab district like Uniondale’s is very important for Trump and his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris: House control helps determine whether the next president’s agenda faces supportive, same-party lawmakers – or an unyielding wall of partisan opposition.

Although Trump may not win New York this November, the Republican Party has had surprising success in House contests there in recent years.

Republican Anthony D’Esposito, the representative for the recently contested 4th district where the rally was held, warmed up the crowd for Trump, receiving a standing ovation. “Long Island is a battlefield island!” he growled.

He wrested the district from Democratic control in 2022, even though President Joe Biden had dominated there two years earlier. Now the district’s Democrats want it back.

Hammering warnings about crime, immigration and inflation helped the Republican Party capture key suburban New York districts – and control of the House of Representatives – in 2022. Trump and down-ballot Republicans are hoping to replicate this success nationally.

“We’re not a border state, but immigration is big,” said Randie Lucano, 64, a small business owner who lives in the 4th district. “The economy is big. Housing, the next generation. What are they capable of?”

Ms Lucano said she was independent and considered voting for Robert F Kennedy Jr before he dropped out. Now, he said, he will vote Republican because he believes Trump will curb immigration and control the cost of living.

Nationally, likely voters who say the economy is a major issue in this election favor Trump over Harris, 53% to 47%, a mid-September poll by CBS News/YouGov found.

Polls also show that voters who view immigrants negatively support Trump; 73% of registered voters who support Trump say immigrants make the country worse, compared to just 13% of Trump voters who believe the opposite.

Long Island voter Celine Kaur, 48, feels strongly about migrants. “We have terrorists who can come,” he said, echoing Mr Trump’s rhetoric. “It’s horrible. This is very horrible.

Ms. Kaur said her parents immigrated legally from Guyana in the 1980s, but that new migrants are draining resources. “I couldn’t even get any help, but they came yesterday, and they got a lot of help,” she said.

As Trump provides plenty of red meat for his base at rallies, there’s a chance he could turn off those key moderate voters.

“The problem for Republicans running in moderate, suburban swing districts is that these voters tend to shy away from extremism of all stripes, both in terms of tone and substance,” said Lawrence Levy, an expert on suburban politics at Hofstra University.

“The danger for the Republican Party to go down is its tone, and its language on race, and crime … it really hurts its ability to connect with all but its most loyal supporters.”

And this isn’t 2022, when Democrats don’t have a presidential race to boost turnout and face an unfavorable round of redistricting.

Two years ago, “we had the wind in our face. Now I think we have the wind at our back,” said Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York State Democratic Party.

Democrats have a new motivational factor in Ms. Harris, whose historic campaign could encourage less frequent voters. He also ran on abortion rights, which has been an Achilles heel for Trump.

Christine Y., a resident of the 4th district, said she didn’t want to vote for Trump because of his “attitude,” even though most of her family likes him. want his last name used for privacy reasons.

As a Korean American, he dislikes Trump’s rhetoric on immigration and crime. But it was abortion that animated her. “Personally, I’m pro-life, but I’m not going to tell people what to do,” he said. “So I guess I’m pro-choice. That’s between them and God. That’s their choice.”

Christine doesn’t always vote, but said that this year she will probably vote for Harris. And maybe the local Democrats too.