Eyear 8 Former Barack Obama spent several days in the afternoon of the presidency in Laos. He bought a coconut from a roadside stall, visited a sacred site, and then sat through two days of stultifying summitry. But when Asian leaders once again meet in Laos on October 11, President Joe Biden will not be there. He skipped the East Asia Summit, an annual meeting of 18 countries, for the second year in a row. Antony Blinken (pictured), secretary of state, will represent America.
A big part of Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia” is his promise to attend the East Asia Summit every year. Chaired and hosted by Southeast Asian leaders, the summit gave the region’s politicians a chance to set the agenda and tell the American president what they think about his policies. It sends a signal that America will listen to smaller countries, and draws a contrast with China, which has a habit of harassing its neighbors at such meetings. The year when America attended the East Asia Summit, Hillary Clinton, Obama’s secretary of state, joked that “half of diplomacy is emerging.”
America’s exclusion from Asia’s top multilateral institutions is partly a result of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East that have diverted its attention. But also on purpose. The Biden administration has mostly stopped trying to persuade the region of its position on China in talking shops like the East Asia Summit. Instead of focusing on cooperation with countries that have shared their point of view, such as Australia, India and Japan, which together with the United States formed the Quad, a security group. Mr Biden hosted the leader at his home last month.
But Southeast Asia remains at the heart of the geographic and economic competition between America and China, so ignoring it carries risks. For the first time this year, the annual survey of politicians, civil servants and business leaders by Jesus-Yusof Ishak Institute, a think-tank in Singapore, found that if forced to align with either America or China, Southeast Asian elites will choose China.
Apart from diplomacy, there are three reasons for this. First, American protectionism and industrial policies isolated Southeast Asia. America is not offering new access to its markets in free trade agreements. Tariffs are upending established trade patterns. “Derisking” measures incur costs when the supply chain is split in two.
Second, Southeast Asians have begun to question whether America’s policy on Taiwan poses a risk of conflict. America has always struck a careful balance on the self-governing island. It works to thwart China’s plans to retake it by leaving open the possibility of an American military response, while discouraging Taiwan’s leaders from advancing toward independence and thereby unsettling China.
But Southeast Asians fear that America may depart from this path. A visit to Taiwan in 2022 by Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, raises tensions in a dangerous way in Southeast Asian countries. Mike Pompeo, who is the secretary of state under Donald Trump, has said that America should support Taiwan’s independence. If Mr Trump returns to power, Asian officials will be even more worried.
Third, America’s support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas has fueled support among Muslims and youth in the region. Many see a double standard between America’s condemnation of China’s persecution of the Uighurs and its support for Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza. Mr Biden was so unpopular among Malaysians whose leader, Anwar Ibrahim, expressed relief that the US president was skipping the summit in Laos. â–
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